About six months ago, we published a set of predictions on how ecommerce in Southeast Asia would evolve over the next 18 months.
Some were contrarian. A few were uncomfortable.
As we head into the final weeks of 2025, it’s worth asking a simple question:
Which of these predictions are already playing out — and which are only just getting started?
Below are five that stand out.
1. Cross-border from China keeps growing, despite scrutiny
We predicted that cross-border ecommerce from China would continue to grow even as scrutiny increased.
That is exactly what we’re seeing.
- Regulation has changed the routes, not the direction
- Platforms have adapted through different fulfilment paths and new logistics partners
- Supply chains have become more fragmented — but also more resilient
China’s record US$1 trillion trade surplus (Jan–Nov 2025) is a clear signal of how these supply chain shifts are playing out.
The playbook is evolving — but the momentum hasn’t slowed.
The real question is how platforms, brands and regulators respond next.
2. Grocery and quick commerce are back — with discipline
Half a year ago, many assumed grocery and quick commerce had already peaked in Southeast Asia. We disagreed.
Platforms are reinvesting, but with a very different mindset from 2021–2022:
- Less about land grab
- More about operational leverage and customer experience
- Much tighter control over fulfilment economics
Grab, Shopee and others are experimenting with different models.
This is a space worth watching closely as we move into 2026.
3. TikTok Shop is shifting from GMV obsession to profit leadership
TikTok Shop still wants eventual GMV leadership in Southeast Asia – but its operating model is clearly shifting toward profitability.
The earlier phase of headline-grabbing GMV milestones is giving way to:
- Brands and enablers building large-scale studio operations
- Heavier investment in operations and fulfilment expertise
- New tools like GMV Max, aimed at lowering entry barriers – while intensifying competition
For sellers and brands, the reality is clear: it’s becoming more competitive, not easier.
4. Chinese brands are entering Southeast Asia more intelligently
This prediction hasn’t fully played out yet — but the direction is clear.
Instead of indiscriminate SKU dumping, we’re seeing:
- Clearer category focus
- Better localisation of content and pricing
- More deliberate channel strategies
- Longer-term commitment of teams and resources
In many cases, these brands look less like “foreign entrants” and more like local brands powered by Chinese supply chains.
This shift will matter even more in 2026.
5. The uncomfortable one: customer loyalty is weaker than most brands think
Perhaps the most controversial prediction we made was this:
Customer loyalty is largely a myth in ecommerce.
What we’re seeing increasingly supports it:
- Frequency, availability and price often outweigh brand affinity
- Platforms understand this reality better than most brands
- Retention is becoming an operational problem, not just a marketing one
This doesn’t mean brands don’t matter.
It means consumers are more pragmatic – and execution matters more than storytelling.
Why this matters
These shifts are easy to discuss – but much harder to understand without seeing how companies actually execute on the ground.
Many of the insights above didn’t come from dashboards or press releases.
They came from spending time inside companies – observing how teams are organised, how decisions are made, and how supply chains are run.
Our team has been to China 13 times this year.
That’s also why, from 28–30 January, we’ll be running the second MW Executive Immersion (MWX) – designed for leaders who want to go beyond theory and see how these models work in practice.
If you’d like a preview of what we’ll cover during MWX, I encourage you to join our MWX Insights Session: How Chinese companies scale faster tomorrow. Details below:
📅 Wednesday, 17 December | 3–4pm SGT
📍 Online (Lark link provided upon confirmation)
👉 Register for a complimentary seat
