Last week, we held an online event titled “Off the record: Indonesia after TikTok Shop ban” where we discussed a few key topics such as reasons behind the ban, the impacts of the ban on ecosystem players and the rest of the world and many more.
What most people were interested in finding out during the event was how this ban would affect the market share of key players within the region. In July, we made some projections which were subsequently published in “The TikTok Shop Playbook” report. Back then we estimated TikTok Shop’s market share to be around 13.2% in 2023 – based on the trajectories and observations on the ground.
With the enactment of the ban, we have revised our projections. Our latest estimates are that TikTok Shop’s market share in Southeast Asia this year will be 13.9%. This raised a few eyebrows – shouldn’t TikTok Shop’s market share drop after its largest market has been shut off?
Well, while TikTok Shop is losing the entire volume in Indonesia in Q4 – there are other factors there.
In particular, TikTok’s performance and growth in Southeast Asia during the last few months before the ban actually exceeded expectations, setting them up to hit a GMV beyond their target of $15 million this year. Even if Indonesia does not contribute any volume in the whole fourth quarter, the other markets, which had ⅔ of the total GMV of TikTok Shop prior to Indonesia’s ban, will still carry TikTok Shop’s Southeast Asia GMV beyond what had initially been projected.
Do note that we have not factored in any potential diversion of resources from Indonesia to other markets, and the competitors’ corresponding response.
While TikTok has not made any official statements about their ecommerce plans in Indonesia, we do know for sure that this is a market that they would not give up on so easily and we can expect TikTok Shop’s return to Indonesia, is one form or another, sooner or later.