Will TikTok Shop overtake Shopee?

Over the last year, TikTok Shop has shown incredible growth, especially in Southeast Asia. TikTok Shop expanded from Indonesia to all 6 major Southeast Asian markets and achieved a GMV of US$4.4 Billion. With plans to triple its Southeast Asia GMV in 2023, does TikTok Shop pose a threat to long standing players like Shopee, Lazada and Tokopedia?

In 2022, TikTok Shop’s market share (4.4%) in Southeast Asia remained modest, but its growth is definitely noteworthy. This upward trajectory continued in 2023 – with TikTok’s management seemingly very determined to challenge the existing ecommerce market order in the region.

Currently, Tokopedia seems to be the most impacted, with its GTV decreasing by 3.58% YoY in Q1 and this accelerated to 12.83% in Q2. Our projection is that TikTok will reach a market share of 13.2% this year, in the same league as Tokopedia and Lazada.

Do note that the projected market share figure of 13.2% is annualised, which means the daily/monthly market share in December this year will be a higher number.

Better-resourced Shopee and Lazada are less impacted yet they are taking this very seriously, even though TikTok Shop is not overtaking Shopee any time soon. The disruption in ecommerce order in China since 2023, led by insurgents Pinduoduo and TikTok’s sister company Douyin, is a case in point.

For more insights into the ecommerce competitive dynamics brought about by the rise of TikTok Shop, check out our latest report The TikTok Shop Playbook: How ecosystem stakeholders should respond to the ecommerce insurgent.