Why did GoTo’s share price jump 15% after weeks of slumping?

On Monday, we made the following comments about GoTo’s declining share price:

“Unless the management delivers some extraordinary confidence booster, or state forces including regulators step in, we will continue to see the steps down on the stock chart – until an equilibrium price so low that those rushing out the door might as well hold.”

It seems we underestimated another possibility – something miraculous happening. 

Yesterday (13 December), GoTo’s share price quickly started rising after market open, at one point by 30% to reach Rp108. After a day of trading, the market closes at Rp100, or 15% rise from Monday’s close. 

The trading volume is also a record since GoTo IPO:

Some of our friends are quite excited – finally GoTo’s shares bottomed out. 

Some people are saying the rise is because UBS analysts upgraded GoTo’s rating from “Sell” to “Buy”. Hmm … 

Actually, if you observe closely, you will realize that the major securities firms on Tuesday actually had an average transaction price at Rp87 – or Monday’s closing price. Major buyers are CLSA, Mirae and JP Morgan, while the biggest seller is CGS-CIMB.

Most of the trade happened at market open, where the price went as low as Rp81: 

We are curious that aside from retail or those with special purposes, who would buy at a price of Rp100 or above.

As to who is behind these securities firms and their motives, we would prefer not to make random guesses. 

If we look at the orderbook, the price might rise further on Wednesday. 

Exciting times. 

暴跌几周后，GoTo股价为何又神奇地暴涨了？

我们昨天提到GoTo最近连续暴跌的股票的时候说过：

“除非管理层有特别能振奋市场信心的举措，来针强心剂，或者有国家力量/监管机构介入，否则我们还会继续看到股价阶梯式下跌的 – 直到跌得太低以至于投资者认为抛售还不如持有”。

不过看来我们还是太小看印尼市场了 – 神奇事件还是会发生的。

今天（12月13日），GoTo股价开盘之后很快价格就开始爬升，一度上升30%到了108印尼盾，然后进入盘整最后收在了100盾 – 比昨天的收盘价高出了将近15%。

今天的成交额也创了GoTo上市以来的记录：

我们在一些印尼朋友的群里看到了欢欣鼓舞 – 有些人很高兴GoTo的股价终于探底回升了。 

媒体说是因为UBS的分析师昨天把GoTo的评级从“Sell”连升两级到“Buy”的原因 – 这种解释估计只有新韭菜会相信吧。 

但是如果仔细观察一下的话，就会发现GoTo今天一天主要券商的平均成交价其实在87印尼盾 – 也就是昨天的收盘价。主要的卖盘是印尼联昌银河证券；主要的买盘是中信里昂证券、未来证券、以及摩根大通。

而且绝大多数的成交都是在开盘时以85印尼盾的价格完成的：

相信做市商也在100块钱左右的价格少量进货 – 不过除了散户或者有特殊目的，我们想不出有什么原因会在这个时间以这个价格进入。

至于券商和做市商背后打的算盘，就不妄加揣测了。大家可以自己品。

看收盘时的挂单量，明天可能还会涨。

挺好玩的。